Alternative history: What if the Arab states were united?

Alternative history: What if the Arab states were united?

Context

Before World War I, the United Kingdom had established protectorates in the Middle East, then after the Ottoman Empire got weaker, the United Kingdom finally established a protectorate in Qatar. In 1918, Germany lost World War I, and the loss of Germany had made the British and the French to seek for new colonies, and they had chosen the Middle East as their base to establish protectorates. In the 1920s, the British and the French carved up the Middle East to establish their own colonies and the borders that are established are artificial. In 1926, the kingdom of Hijaz was defeated by the Saudi kingdom ruled by the House of Saud. After 20 years, independence movements emerged everywhere, thus countries such as Jordan, Syria, Iraq were created with artificial borders. After that, an Arab nationalist ideology called Ba'athism emerged, which give birth to authoritarian rulers such as Saddam Hussein. Due to the ousting of authoritarian rulers later, civil war and strife happened. But what if in this alternative timeline there was an attempt to unite the Arab states?

Scenario

In the real timeline, the British established protectorates in the Middle East, and that would have also happened in this alternative timeline. Not only that, there would be many similarities between the real timeline and this alternative timeline, which is the loss of Germany during World War I. But the difference revolves around the action done by the West. In this alternative timeline, the British would have established a protectorate which united all the Arab states like what they did in the Malay peninsula with the Malay states. Although the British successfully United the Arab states and established a protectorate in this alternative timeline, but the Arab states would not remain united forever. In this alternative timeline, there would have been a rebellion by the Wahhabis, a puritanical Islamic group supported by the House of Saud, in the Nejd due to their strong belief in the doctrine of jihad (holy war). Not only that, the Wahhabis would also conquer Mecca and Medina (the two holy cities of Islam) as their jihad objective.

In this alternative timeline, the kingdoms of Hijaz and Jamal Shammar would not be defeated by the House of Saud and would fall under the hands of the British protectorate. Although Mecca and Medina would have fallen to the hands of the Wahhabis, they would not dare to conquer Hijaz. Not only the Wahhabis, there would also be rebellions against the British protectorate in the Middle East, by other groups, such as the Kurds, Alawites, Druze and the kingdom of Oman. The Kurds living in Turkey would also rebel, because Turkey in this alternative timeline would also fall to the hands of the nationalists led by Atatürk.

A Jewish autonomous region for the Jews would be established by the British protectorate, because at that time, the campaign for Zionism (the return of the Jews to their homeland). Not only establishing an autonomous region, the British would also establish colonies in Palestine and Sidon and name it the Machanaim Settlements.

Along with the emergence of decolonisation movements around the world, the Arab world would also be affected by it, this would also happen in this alternative timeline, where the British united the Arab states and that effort is rejected by the Arabs themselves. In this alternative timeline, Ba'athism would still develop as an ideology and the Federated Arab States would all be united under one Ba'athist state.

Although the Arab states would be united in this alternative timeline, that does not mean that the union of the Arab states would last forever, because there would be one minority group which successfully seceded to form an independent state, namely the Kurds, and their ethnic compatriots in Turkey would follow suit. Not only the Kurds, the city of Najaf, which is a holy city for Shi'ites, would attempt to secede and the Shi'ites would attempt to establish a theocracy in Najaf, but it would not be successful, then autonomy would be granted for the theocratic city of Najaf. In this alternative timeline, autonomy is granted for the Jews, so any attempt to secede would be suppressed and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would not happen. 

In this alternative timeline, although there would be a united Arab Ba'athist state, but the Wahhabi state under the House of Saud would not be incorporated to the united Arab Ba'athist state, because the Wahhabis would keep their country away from outside influence. Because countries such as Iraq, Syria and Yemen would not exist in this alternative timeline, there would be no civil war in this alternative timeline. But that does not mean that there would be no terrorism, the communists and Wahhabis would still rebel against the Arab Ba'athist state and terrorise the public.

In this alternative timeline, the Arab Ba'athist state would be a developed country due to exploration of oil and large-scale industrialisation, even the Ba'athist Arab state would be the number one importer of petroleum in the world.

The union of Arab lands to become one country would not just affect the Arab world. But it would also affect the nearby regions, as mentioned before. Not only the Kurds would seceed from Turkey, there would be much more change in terms of politics, one of them is the fall of Iran to the hands of the ultranationalists and Iran annexing Afghanistan, due to the Iranians' anger on the widespread corruption by the Pahlevi royal family and influence from the Ba'athist ideology of the Arab world. Iran in this alternative timeline would be an ally of the USA during the Cold War, so there would be no Soviet invasion of Iran nor would there be any conflict in Afghanistan. The revolution by Ruhollah Khomeini would also be suppressed by the Iranian ultranationalist government in this alternative timeline. Iran would be seen as a Central Asian country in this alternative timeline, not a Middle Eastern country.

In this alternative timeline, the Wahhabi state would not spread their ideology outside the Arab world, although there would be exploration of oil in the Wahhabi state, because they would be a neutral state, neither an ally of the USA nor the USSR in the Cold War, whereas the United Arab Ba'athist state would be an ally of the USA in the Cold War.

Although in this alternative timeline there is a United Arab Ba'athist state, but that does not mean that it would be a one-party authoritarian state forever. Pro-democracy movements would emerge to end the Ba'athist hegemony. That would also happen in Iran, they would not be a one-party authoritarian state forever, because there would be a pro-democracy movement which had the objective to end the hegemony of the Pan-Iranist party.

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