Alternative history: What if Franz Ferdinand was never assassinated?

Alternative history: What if Franz Ferdinand was never assassinated?

Context

World War I began in 1914. The main cause of it was the assassination of Franz Ferdinand by a student of Slavic descent due to discontent over the rule of Austria-Hungary on the Slavic lands. After Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, conflict between imperialist states (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Ottoman Turkey) and nationalist states (France, Britain, Russia, Serbia, Belgium, Montenegro, Japan, Italy, Romania, Portugal, Hicaz, China, Greece and Siam), which intensified into a worldwide conflict and became World War I. During World War I, the imperialist states lost, then the treaty of Versailles was ratified to end the conflict, which made some German politicians, including Adolf Hitler, disappointed. But what if the assassination of Franz Ferdinand was just an unsuccessful attempt?

Skenario

During the late 19th century and the early 20th century, nationalism as an ideology had been spreading throughout the world, which made Ottoman Turkey losing her territory due to the emergence of states which separated from the Ottoman state. Because Serbia and Bulgaria had been separated from the Ottoman state, the other Slavic Nations (Slovenes, Croats, etc.) wanted to have their own independent state, due to the discontent over foreign rule on the Slavic lands, Franz Ferdinand was assasinated. If the assasination of Franz Ferdinand was unsuccessful, there would not be a major conflict between nationalist and imperialist states, but that does not mean there would be no conflict at all. In this alternative timeline, there would still be conflict between imperialist and nationalist states, although it would be small-scale. In this alternative timeline, the lands inhabited by the Slavs would have been a conflict zone, which would mean that Bosnia and Herzegovina would be contested between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, whereas Bohemia, Moravia, Slovakia and Galicia would be contested between Austria-Hungary and Russia. In this alternative timeline, the Slavs would have won the wars in Eastern Europe. Whereas in Western Europe, the areas inhabited by the ethnic groups which are not the country's majority would have experienced the same fate, which would mean South Tyrol would have been contested between Austria-Hungary and Italy, whereas Alsace-Lorraine would have been contested between France and Germany.

Just like in the real timeline, the war would have ended in 1918 in this alternative timeline. In this alternative timeline, the Treaty of Versailles would never exist, and the Ottomans would have been ruling areas inhabited by the Arabs. However, that does not mean that the Arabs would want to be ruled by the Turks, because in this alternative timeline, the Wahhabis would have led the resistance against foreign rule in Arabia. In this alternative timeline, Arabia would have been divided into three territories, namely Hijaz, Nejd (under the Wahhabis) and Ottoman territories (which consists of the Levant, Iraq, Qatif and some British protectorates in the Gulf). 

Europe in this alternative timeline would not be very much different than in the real timeline, where many areas would form new states. However, Czechoslovakia would be part of Poland and Russia would have fallen to the Bolsheviks (communists) due to discontent over economic injustice in Russia.

In this alternative timeline, the empire of Austria-Hungary would be fragmented, just like in the real timeline, but that would not happen in 1918. Ultranationalism would also have spread in this alternative timeline, and Benito Mussolini of Italy would be one of the pioneers of the ultranationalist ideologies and other countries such as Germany, Austria, Hungary, Portugal, Poland, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Albania and Greece would be inspired. Communism would have spread to Turkey and China.

Although in this alternative Europe would have fallen to the ultranationalists, but that does not mean that there would be no conflict at all. In this alternative timeline, there would be areas which would be contested between countries who subscribe to an ultranationalist ideology, in this case Transylvania would be contested between Romania and Hungary, South Tyrol would be contested between Italy and Austria, Slovenia and Croatia would be contested between Hungary and Italy, Kosovo would be contested between Serbia and Albania, the eastern parts of Germany would be contested between Germany and Poland, and Bavaria would be contested between Austria and Germany.

In this alternative timeline, there would have been a civil war in China between the nationalists and the communists, and the same would also happen in Turkey. The Turkish civil war would have been won by the communists, although there would be resistance against Turkish communist rule by the Arabs in the southern part of Iraq and the Gulf, and the civil war China would also be won by the communists. But that does not mean that everyone in China would accept communist rule, because the people of Mongolia and Tibet would resist against Chinese communist rule and the two states mentioned beforehand (Tibet and Mongolia) would obtain their independence, which did not happen to Tibet in the real timeline

In this alternative timeline, anti-Semitism in Europe, especially in Eastern Europe, would have been widespread, thus, the Turkish communist government would have established an autonomous region for the Jews in Palestine. Just like in the real timeline, the Jews would have migrated from Palestine to flee anti-Semitic sentiment in Europe.

In this alternative timeline, Germany would have given its colonies in Africa and the South Pacific to the other colonial powers, just like in the real timeline. Western Togoland would have been given to Britain, Togo would have been given to France, Cameroon would have been given to France, Southern Cameroons would have been given to Britain, Tanzania would have been given to the British, Rwanda and Burundi would be given independence, Namibia would be given to the British, Papua New Guinea would be given to the British, Micronesia would be given to the British and Samoa would be given to the British

In this alternative timeline, there would still be a civil war in Spain and the nationalists would have won it. But the difference between this timeline and this alternative timeline is the independence of the Catalans and the Rif in North Africa

In this alternative timeline, the USA would have still attacked Pearl Harbor and a large-scale conflict would have happened as it would happen in the real timeline. The difference between this alternative timeline and the real timeline revolves around who would have been involved in this large-scale war, where the Axis forces would be USA-Britain-France-USSR and Allies would be Poland-Italy-Japan, not Germany-Italy-Japan. In this alternative timeline, Poland, Italy and Japan would have occupied some parts of the world.

In this alternative timeline, the great wars would have been won by the Axis forces (USA-Britain-France-USSR), which is the same as the real timeline. Communism would have been widespread in Eastern Europe and the Cold War, which is an ideological conflict between capitalism-liberalism (USA) and socialism-communism (USSR), would have happened. Decolonisation would also happen just like in the real timeline. The fall of communism due to economic crisis in Eastern Europe would have happened in this alternative timeline.