Alternative history: What if the Soviet Union never invaded Afghanistan?

Alternative history: What if Nur Muhammad Taraki was never assassinated? What if the Soviet Union never invaded Afghanistan?

Context

In 1973, Afghanistan became a republic and Zahir Shah abdicated. Then in 1978, the Saur Revolution happened, when there was a coup d'état led by PDPA under Nur Muhammad Taraki against the republican government led by Daoud Khan. In 1979, Nur Muhammad Taraki was assassinated after he went off the aeroplane in Kabul after returning from Moscow. Because of the assassination of Nur Muhammad Taraki, the USSR invaded Afghanistan. After the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, hardline Islamic organisations allegedly funded by Saudi Arabia waged jihad against the communist government. In 1992, the Taliban, a political party formed by hardline Islamic organisations allegedly funded by Saudi Arabia began to gain inroads into Afghanistan. In the 1990s, the Taliban came into power by forcing their radial values to be implemented in Afghanistan. In 2001, the USA invaded Afghanistan. After the US invasion, the Taliban waged a rebellion against the legitimate government of Afghanistan. But what if the USSR never invaded Afghanistan?

Scenario

In 1973, Afghanistan became a republic and King Zahir Shah abdicated, and this would also happen in this alternative timeline. Then in 1978, the Saur Revolution happened, where a coup d'état against the republican government under Daoud Khan was led by the PDPA led by Nur Muhammad Taraki, which would also happen in this alternative timeline. The PDPA in Afghanistan implemented large-scale modernisation, especially in the emancipation of women, and the same thing would also happen in this alternative history.

In this alternative 1979 where the assassination of Nur Muhammad Taraki was an unsuccessful attempt, the USSR would not invade Afghanistan, but would invade communist China instead, because at that time the ruling regime in China had cut off diplomatic relations with the USSR for years. Although in this alternative timeline the USSR did not invade Afghanistan, but the hardline Islamic organisations allegedly funded by Saudi Arabia would still emerge, even an attempted Islamic Revolution inspired by the revolution in Iran would still happen, and it would be crushed by the PDPA. In this alternative timeline, Afghanistan would still be a peaceful country under a one-party regime. China in this alternative timeline would be a war-torn country and another civil war would be fought between the nationalists and the communists. In this alternative, Uyghur, Tibetan and Taiwanese separatists would take advantage of the chaos in China to end Chinese colonialism.

In this alternative timeline, there would be disappointment with the repressive PDPA regime in Afghanistan which would cause major protests in the country, due to influence from Eastern Europe, whereas in China, there would not be a major protest in the Tianamen Square. Because the people in Afghanistan are getting more disappointed with the repressive PDPA regime, there would be another major protest in 1999, inspired by the protests in Laos, then the PDPA regime would collapse and Afghanistan would be a democratic country.

China in this alternative timeline would break up like the Soviet Union, due to economic problems which causes the Chinese communist regime to be at risk of collapse. Tibet would be an independent country under the Dalai Lama, the Uyghur lands would be an independent socialist-oriented country with socialism as their policy, China would be a federal state, whereas Taiwan would be a liberal democracy.

In the real timeline, the attempt to topple off the communist government in Laos would fail, and it would also fail in this alternative timeline. But that would not happen in Afghanistan. Because Afghanistan in this alternative timeline would be a democratic country, hardline Islamic political parties would be established and would take over seats in the legislative, although only a few people would support it.

In the real timeline, Osama bin Laden was be expelled from Saudi Arabia and his Saudi citizenship would be revoked, then he came to live in Sudan, which would also happed in this alternative timeline. But Osama bin Laden in this alternative timeline would establish an organisation to wage war against the legitimate government of Sudan led by Omar Al Bashir, then there would be a large-scale conflict in Sudan involving the legitimate government, Al-Qaeda rebels and South Sudanese separatists. In this alternative timeline, there would be no spillover of the Sudan conflict, which is different from the real timeline, where there was a spillover of the conflict in Afghanistan into Pakistan and Tajikistan.

In this alternative timeline, Pakistan would never be a major conflict zone due to the Afghan Taliban waging war against the Pakistani government, but a conflict between the Pakistani government and the Pashto separatists would still happen, although it would not be prolonged and the conflict would be small-scale one due to a ceasefire which would result in autonomy in the Pashto lands.

In this alternative timeline, Tajikistan would not be a major conflict zone and the liberal democrats, Gorno Badakhshan separatists and Afghan Taliban-influenced groups would not be the belligerents of the conflict, but there would still be large-scale conflict between the legitimate government of Tajikistan and the rebels and Tajikistan would end up being a federal state due to the existence of a ceasefire ending the conflict in Tajikistan.

In the real timeline, 9/11 happened in 2001, and it would also happen in this alternative timeline. In the real timeline, Afghanistan was invaded by the USA, whereas in this alternative timeline, Sudan would be invaded instead, then Sudan would break up into three countries, and the conflict would transform into a small-scale one. In the real timeline, Al-Qaeda-influenced groups emerged around the world and a similar organisation like ISIS emerged, and it would also happen in this alternative timeline.