Alternative history: What would happen if the Normans never conquered Sicily?

Alternative history: What would happen if the Normans never conquered Sicily?

Context

In 1061, the Normans began to conquer Sicily, and the conquest was led by Roger I's army. Slowly, the rule of the Emirate of Sicily, the Islamic kingdom on the island of Sicily, was weakening. In 1071, Robert Guiscard, a Norman nobleman became one of the belligerents of the conquest, then in 1090, the entire island of Sicily was conquered, then on the next year, Malta was conquered. In 1130, Sicily became a sovereign kingdom ruled by the Hauteville dynasty. Under the kingdom of Sicily, Christians, Muslims and Jews all lived in harmony until Frederick II crushed the rebellion led by Muslims and expelled Muslims from Sicily. But what would happen if the Normans never conquered Sicily?

Scenario

In the 11th century, it was the era of the Crusades, which was a war on control of the territories surrounding Jerusalem among Islamic kingdoms (mostly Arab) and Christian kingdoms (European). Its effect was not just in the Middle East, but also in other parts of the world surrounding the Mediterranean Basin. In this alternative timeline, the Normans attempt to conquer Sicily, but failed, and the Emirate of Sicily survived. But that does not mean that the Emirate of Sicily would have been a sovereign kingdom, but in this alternative timeline, Sicily would have been a territory of Almoravid Morocco. in this scenario, the Almohad would have still came to power in Morocco, and Sicily and Malta would have still been under Almoravid rule as the Almoravid Emirate of Sicily. But that does not mean that Muslims would rule Sicily forever. In this alternative 13th century, the Papal States would conquer Sicily and Malta as a reaction to the Crusaders' loss in the Crusades.

In the 15th century of this scenario, there would have been a war among the major powers at that time, namely the Papal States, Habsburg Austria and Spain (Castile), which would result in the annexation of Malta by Castile and the annexation of Sicily by Habsburg Austria. In the real timeline, the Austro-Hungarian Habsburg state would have never took power in Sicily, whereas in this alternative timeline, Sicily was officially declared as part of the Austro-Hungarian Habsburg state since 1526.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire in this scenario would have kept Sicily, and use of the German language would have widespread in Sicily. But that does not mean that the Austro-Hungarian Empire would have survived. In this alternative timeline, the Austro-Hungarian Empire would have collapsed in 1918, and Sicily would have been part of Italy. In this alternative Sicily, there would have been a rebellion led by the Soviet Republic of Sicily in the 1930s, and it would have been crushed. The Spanish kingdom in this scenario would have maintained sovereignty over Malta and declare Malta as Spanish territory. However, Malta would have been an independent country after the death of Franco.

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