Alternative history: What if Afghanistan modernised by the 19th century?

Alternative history: What if Afghanistan modernised by the 19th century?

Context

In the 19th century, Afghanistan was ruled by the Barakzai dynasty. In 1833, the British attempted to conquer Afghanistan by supporting the Durrani dynasty, and they were defeated in 1842, in the First Anglo-Afghan War, then another war involving the British and the Afghans happen between 1878 and 1880. The Second Anglo-Afghan War was won by the British and Quetta became part of British India. In 1919, a war involving the British and the Afghans happened for the third time and it resulted in the Afghans' victory. But what would happen if Afghanistan modernised in 1842 to escape foreign colonialism?

Scenario

In the real timeline, Emir Dost Mohammad Khan, who was the king of Afghanistan (from the Barakzai dynasty), was deposed due to the Anglo-Afghan War, and that would also happen in this alternative history secnario. After Emir Dost Mohammad Khan was deposed, the Durrani dynasty came to power for 3 years, then the Barakzai came back to power. In 1842, Emir Dost Mohammad Khan would have realised that Afghanistan cannot remain an underdeveloped country with a tribal mentality. Inspired by the Tanzimat in the Ottoman Empire, he would have began to modernised the country.

At the beginning, Emir Dost Mohammad Khan would have incorporated Balochistan as part of Afghanistan, then he would begin a series of gradual modernisation. He would start by restricting polygamy for rural landlords (tribal leaders), then he would have established an Islamic religious learning centre modelled on Al Azhar in Cairo. In the 1870s, a railway in Afghanistan would have been built, and at the same time, Balochistan would have been officially incorporated into British India and Kafiristan would have been incorporated into Afghanistan, and the name Kafiristan would have been incorporated into Iskandaristan, which shows that the inhabitants are descendants of Alexander the Great. There would have been no massacre of Hazaras in Afghanistan in this alternative timeline. Western Christian missionaries would have been allowed in Afghanistan as long as they do not evangelise Muslims. Christian missionaries in Afghanistan, especially from the Dutch Reformed denomination, would have evangelised the inhabitants of Iskandaristan. In the 1880s, Muhammad Abduh would have visited Afghanistan to see how Islam in Afghanistan is like.

In 1919, Afghanistan would have been one of the League of Nations' pioneer states and the ban on polygamy for non-elites would have been lifted due to its perception as something that goes against the League of Nations Charter which bans all forms of discrimination. In the 1920s, the literacy rate of Afghanistan would have reached 50% and as much as 80% of the inhabitants of Iskandaristan would have been Christians thanks to missionaries being successful. In the 1930s, the Jadids, who are Muslim reformist scholars from Central Asia, would have been exiled to Afghanistan if they survived the massacre ordered by Stalin.

In the 1950s, there would have been a communist rebellion in Afghanistan, because those living in the mountainous areas feel ignored by the Afghan government, then the rebellion would have been crushed. In the 1980s, a hard-line Islamist rebellion (Sunni) would have happen due to the perceived threat from the Shi'a groups inspired by the revolution in Iran. In this alternative timeline, there would have still been conflict in Afghanistan in the 1980s, although the scale of the conflict would have been far smaller. Those involved in this hypothetical conflict would have been the Afghan government and Shi'a rebel groups dominated by the Hazara.

This hypothetical Afghanistan would have undergone rapid development, with a controlled-access highway between Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif and also one between Kabul and the Pakistani border, and there would have been an metro network in the city of Kabul. Afghanistan would have been a tourist hotspot and not perceived as a hotbed for terrorism. The literacy rate of this hypothetical Afghanistan in 2025 would have reached 84%.

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